What is the Pending Home Sales Index?
The National Association of Realtors measures the number of pending homes nationwide on a monthly basis. They do this by tracking when there is a status change from an active listing to a pending sale via the Multiple Listing Service. This is called the Pending Home Sales Index.
The NAR assumes that 75%-80% of all homes pending will close within 60 days while the remaining will close within 120 days. Thus it is considered a prediction of future home sales.
But, although using the Pending Home Sales report as a crystal ball may be its intended use, it may not its best use. This is because of the index’s methodology: 1. It doesn’t measure new construction homes 2. It doesn’t track For Sale By Owner properties 3. Its sample set covers just 20 percent of MLS transactions
Since many transactions do not close these days due to the mortgage crisis the PHSI may be skewed. it is, however, a great way to assess buyer demand for real estate on a month to month basis.
We can guage the real estate markets strength based on the Pending Home Sales Index by whether it rises or falls. When it is rising we can be sure that there are presently more buyers in the market and usually more demand brings price increases.
For example, in June 2008, the 2nd time in three months – the PHSI posted a large increase even though economists expected a loss. The Pending Home Sales Index’s rise indicates that the overall market is experiencing a revival for that quarter.
Now, again, the uptick doesn’t mean that the pending sales will necessarily close, but it does tell us that more home buyers are finding “now” to be a good time to buy real estate.That sort of insight is what make the Pending Home Sales Index worth tracking. When buyer demand is rising, the real estate market isn’t usually far behind.
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